Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 14.035341 16.386603 18.957491 21.970144 25.396284 29.163842 33.612641
2024-12-22 10.650285 13.782617 17.516562 22.266065 28.113821 35.043424 43.838234
2024-12-29 8.392852 11.869507 16.330286 22.406174 30.388800 40.432677 53.926029
2025-01-05 6.524895 10.003688 14.772449 21.672660 31.264088 43.966602 61.869402
2025-01-12 5.392320 8.882697 13.954135 21.687037 32.965901 48.561745 71.436625
2025-01-19 4.519945 7.958244 13.228370 21.654822 34.485640 52.916778 80.909706
2025-01-26 4.095690 7.640800 13.330740 22.803422 37.759027 59.935245 94.599961
2025-02-02 3.694337 7.282492 13.297617 23.696910 40.674625 66.592728 108.182112
2025-02-09 3.378275 7.012285 13.355746 24.710397 43.822598 73.777411 122.988962
2025-02-16 2.944522 6.450853 12.833714 24.673979 45.232791 78.323094 133.985022
2025-02-23 2.480236 5.747796 11.959453 23.910368 45.325220 80.726982 141.698361
2025-03-02 2.096651 5.135884 11.163770 23.178409 45.368254 82.997064 149.267161
2025-03-09 1.862238 4.804306 10.873466 23.369514 47.092602 88.258029 162.226008
2025-03-16 1.634076 4.445170 10.480187 23.318234 48.369002 92.840696 174.344778
2025-03-23 1.442459 4.133564 10.139930 23.326055 49.741508 97.664075 187.150894
2025-03-30 1.213504 3.684137 9.439238 22.515113 49.464797 99.508415 194.841210
2025-04-06 1.074912 3.435196 9.144313 22.510577 50.745499 104.237315 207.897037
2025-04-13 0.951957 3.201880 8.850560 22.469905 51.937262 108.857350 220.992822
2025-04-20 0.913761 3.197951 9.099776 23.653398 55.721601 118.581689 243.966865
2025-04-27 0.863184 3.148086 9.229232 24.574896 59.022390 127.559516 265.995667
2025-05-04 0.822124 3.118885 9.406053 25.620809 62.659719 137.385987 290.099382
2025-05-11 0.735145 2.927318 9.137813 25.583038 63.946309 142.647801 305.749279
2025-05-18 0.628381 2.645186 8.586517 24.794613 63.506396 144.415886 314.717185